Universität zu Köln

Held, Hermann, Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm, Pardowitz, Tobias, Pinto, Joaquim G., Ulbrich, Uwe ORCID: 0000-0001-7558-6622, Born, Kai, Donat, Markus G., Karremann, Melanie K., Leckebusch, Gregor C. ORCID: 0000-0001-9242-7682, Ludwig, Patrick ORCID: 0000-0003-3655-7890, Nissen, Katrin M., Oesterle, Hermann, Prahl, Boris F., Werner, Peter C., Befort, Daniel J. and Burghoff, Olaf (2013). Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector. Clim. Change, 121 (2). S. 195 - 208. DORDRECHT: SPRINGER. ISSN 1573-1480

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Abstract

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971-2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6-35 % for 2011-2040, of 20-30 % for 2041-2070, and of 40-55 % for 2071-2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Held, Hermann UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pardowitz, Tobias UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ulbrich, Uwe UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-7558-6622 UNSPECIFIED Born, Kai UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Donat, Markus G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Karremann, Melanie K. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Leckebusch, Gregor C. UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-9242-7682 UNSPECIFIED Ludwig, Patrick UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-3655-7890 UNSPECIFIED Nissen, Katrin M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Oesterle, Hermann UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Prahl, Boris F. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Werner, Peter C. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Befort, Daniel J. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Burghoff, Olaf UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-473375
DOI:	10.1007/s10584-013-0872-7
Journal or Publication Title:	Clim. Change
Volume:	121
Number:	2
Page Range:	S. 195 - 208
Date:	2013
Publisher:	SPRINGER
Place of Publication:	DORDRECHT
ISSN:	1573-1480
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language FUTURE CLIMATE; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; SIMULATIONS; REANALYSIS; MODEL; GCM; CIRCULATION; PERFORMANCE; SCHEME; RCM Multiple languages Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/47337