Universität zu Köln

Fink, Andreas H. ORCID: 0000-0002-5840-2120, Schrage, Jon M. and Kotthaus, Simone ORCID: 0000-0002-4051-0705 (2010). On the Potential Causes of the Nonstationary Correlations between West African Precipitation and Atlantic Hurricane Activity. J. Clim., 23 (20). S. 5437 - 5457. BOSTON: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC. ISSN 1520-0442

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Abstract

For years, various indices of seasonal West African precipitation have served as useful predictors of the overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-1990s, the correlation unexpectedly deteriorated. In the present study, statistical techniques are developed to describe the nonstationary nature of the correlations between annual measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and three selected West African precipitation indices (namely, western Sahelian precipitation in June-September, central Sahelian precipitation in June-September, and Guinean coastal precipitation in the preceding year's August-November period). The correlations between these parameters are found to vary over the period from 1921 to 2007 on a range of time scales. Additionally, considerable year-to-year variability in the strength of these correlations is documented by selecting subsamples of years with respect to various meteorological factors. Broadly, in years when the environment in the main development region is generally favorable for enhanced tropical cyclogenesis (e. g., when sea surface temperatures are high, when there is relatively little wind shear through the depth of the troposphere, or when the relative vorticity in the midtroposphere is anomalously high), the correlations between indices of West African monsoon precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are considerably weaker than in years when the overall conditions in the region are less conducive. Other more remote climate parameters, such as the phase of the Southern Oscillation, are less effective at modulating the nature of these interactions.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Fink, Andreas H. UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5840-2120 UNSPECIFIED Schrage, Jon M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kotthaus, Simone UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-4051-0705 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-495697
DOI:	10.1175/2010JCLI3356.1
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Clim.
Volume:	23
Number:	20
Page Range:	S. 5437 - 5457
Date:	2010
Publisher:	AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Place of Publication:	BOSTON
ISSN:	1520-0442
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; SAHELIAN MONSOON RAINFALL; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; EASTERLY WAVE; EL-NINO; LA-NINA; VARIABILITY; CLIMATE; REANALYSIS; ASSOCIATION Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/49569