Universität zu Köln

Kaiser, Franz ORCID: 0000-0002-7089-2249 and Witthaut, Dirk ORCID: 0000-0002-3623-5341 (2021). Universal Statistics of Redistribution Factors and Large Scale Cascades in Power Grids. IEEE Access, 9. S. 67364 - 67379. PISCATAWAY: IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC. ISSN 2169-3536

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Abstract

Cascades of failures are among the biggest threats to supply networks such as power grids: An initially failing element may trigger the failure of other elements, thereby eventually causing the entire network to collapse. Here, we analyse the statistics of Line Outage Distribution Factors (LODFs), which describe the rerouting of electric power flows after a line failure. In particular, we demonstrate that absolute LODFs are approximately log-normally distributed throughout network topologies. We then illustrate that this log-normal distribution of redistribution factors results in a heavy tailed distribution of outage sizes in a simplified, stochastic cascade model over a certain range of parameters. This cascade model extends previous stochastic cascade models by adding more realistic redistribution mechanisms as well as including more realistic initial trigger events. Our results demonstrate that the statistics of redistribution factors is a fundamental trait throughout different networks and presents a possible explanation for the vast occurrence of heavy tailed distributions in real-world reanalyses of power outage sizes.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Kaiser, Franz UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-7089-2249 UNSPECIFIED Witthaut, Dirk UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3623-5341 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-577195
DOI:	10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3076892
Journal or Publication Title:	IEEE Access
Volume:	9
Page Range:	S. 67364 - 67379
Date:	2021
Publisher:	IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
Place of Publication:	PISCATAWAY
ISSN:	2169-3536
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language TIME-SERIES; MODEL Multiple languages Computer Science, Information Systems; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic; Telecommunications Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/57719