Universität zu Köln

Stewart, Mathew ORCID: 0000-0002-0413-8133, Carleton, W. Christopher and Groucutt, Huw S. (2021). Climate change, not human population growth, correlates with Late Quaternary megafauna declines in North America. Nat. Commun., 12 (1). BERLIN: NATURE PORTFOLIO. ISSN 2041-1723

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Abstract

The disappearance of many North American megafauna at the end of the Pleistocene is a contentious topic. While the proposed causes for megafaunal extinction are varied, most researchers fall into three broad camps emphasizing human overhunting, climate change, or some combination of the two. Understanding the cause of megafaunal extinctions requires the analysis of through-time relationships between climate change and megafauna and human population dynamics. To do so, many researchers have used summed probability density functions (SPDFs) as a proxy for through-time fluctuations in human and megafauna population sizes. SPDFs, however, conflate process variation with the chronological uncertainty inherent in radiocarbon dates. Recently, a new Bayesian regression technique was developed that overcomes this problem-Radiocarbon-dated Event-Count (REC) Modelling. Here we employ REC models to test whether declines in North American megafauna species could be best explained by climate changes, increases in human population densities, or both, using the largest available database of megafauna and human radiocarbon dates. Our results suggest that there is currently no evidence for a persistent through-time relationship between human and megafauna population levels in North America. There is, however, evidence that decreases in global temperature correlated with megafauna population declines. There are a number of competing explanations for the late Pleistocene extinction of many North American megafauna species. Here, the authors apply a Bayesian regression approach that finds greater concordance between megafaunal declines and climate change than with human population growth.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Stewart, Mathew UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-0413-8133 UNSPECIFIED Carleton, W. Christopher UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Groucutt, Huw S. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-577337
DOI:	10.1038/s41467-021-21201-8
Journal or Publication Title:	Nat. Commun.
Volume:	12
Number:	1
Date:	2021
Publisher:	NATURE PORTFOLIO
Place of Publication:	BERLIN
ISSN:	2041-1723
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language SOUTHWESTERN UNITED-STATES; PLEISTOCENE MAMMALIAN EXTINCTIONS; WASHINGTON-STATE; HIGH-RESOLUTION; ANCIENT DNA; VEGETATION; IMPACT; EVENTS; DISTRIBUTIONS; PALEOECOLOGY Multiple languages Multidisciplinary Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/57733