Universität zu Köln

Lamboll, Robin D., Jones, Chris D., Skeie, Ragnhild B., Fiedler, Stephanie, Samset, Bjorn H., Gillett, Nathan P., Rogelj, Joeri ORCID: 0000-0003-2056-9061 and Forster, Piers M. (2021). Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP. Geosci. Model Dev., 14 (6). S. 3683 - 3696. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 1991-9603

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. While the country-level scale of emissions changes can be estimated in near real time, the more detailed, gridded emissions estimates that are required to run general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate will take longer to collect. In this paper we use recorded and projected countryand-sector activity levels to modify gridded predictions from the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP2-4.5 scenario. We provide updated projections for concentrations of greenhouse gases, emissions fields for aerosols, and precursors and the ozone and optical properties that result from this. The code base to perform similar modifications to other scenarios is also provided. We outline the means by which these results may be used in a model intercomparison project (CovidMIP) to investigate the impact of national lockdown measures on climate, including regional temperature, precipitation, and circulation changes. This includes three strands: an assessment of short-term effects (5-year period) and of longer-term effects (30 years) and an investigation into the separate effects of changes in emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This last strand supports the possible attribution of observed changes in the climate system; hence these simulations will also form part of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP).

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Lamboll, Robin D. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Jones, Chris D. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Skeie, Ragnhild B. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Fiedler, Stephanie UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Samset, Bjorn H. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Gillett, Nathan P. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Rogelj, Joeri UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 UNSPECIFIED Forster, Piers M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-598010
DOI:	10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021
Journal or Publication Title:	Geosci. Model Dev.
Volume:	14
Number:	6
Page Range:	S. 3683 - 3696
Date:	2021
Publisher:	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication:	GOTTINGEN
ISSN:	1991-9603
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language ENERGY; MODELS Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/59801