Rosen, Marlene, Betz, Linda T. ORCID: 0000-0003-1741-4069, Schultze-Lutter, Frauke ORCID: 0000-0003-1956-9574, Chisholm, Katharine ORCID: 0000-0002-0575-0789, Haidl, Theresa K., Kambeitz-Ilankovic, Lana, Bertolino, Alessandro, Borgwardt, Stefan, Brambilla, Paolo, Lencer, Rebekka, Meisenzahl, Eva, Ruhrmann, Stephan, Salokangas, Raimo K. R., Upthegrove, Rachel ORCID: 0000-0001-8204-5103, Wood, Stephen J., Koutsouleris, Nikolaos and Kambeitz, Joseph ORCID: 0000-0002-8988-3959 (2021). Towards clinical application of prediction models for transition to psychosis: A systematic review and external validation study in the PRONIA sample. Neurosci. Biobehav. Rev., 125. S. 478 - 493. OXFORD: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. ISSN 1873-7528

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Abstract

A multitude of prediction models for a first psychotic episode in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis have been proposed, but only rarely validated. We identified transition models based on clinical and neuropsychological data through a registered systematic literature search and evaluated their external validity in 173 CHRs from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the prediction of clinical raters. External discrimination performance varied considerably across the 22 identified models (AUC 0.40-0.76), with two models showing good discrimination performance. None of the tested models significantly outperformed clinical raters (AUC = 0.75). Combining predictions of clinical raters and the best model descriptively improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84). Results show that personalized prediction of transition in CHR is potentially feasible on a global scale. For implementation in clinical practice, further rounds of external validation, impact studies, and development of an ethical framework is necessary.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Rosen, MarleneUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Betz, Linda T.UNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-1741-4069UNSPECIFIED
Schultze-Lutter, FraukeUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-1956-9574UNSPECIFIED
Chisholm, KatharineUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-0575-0789UNSPECIFIED
Haidl, Theresa K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kambeitz-Ilankovic, LanaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bertolino, AlessandroUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Borgwardt, StefanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Brambilla, PaoloUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lencer, RebekkaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Meisenzahl, EvaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ruhrmann, StephanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Salokangas, Raimo K. R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Upthegrove, RachelUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0001-8204-5103UNSPECIFIED
Wood, Stephen J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Koutsouleris, NikolaosUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kambeitz, JosephUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-8988-3959UNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-605113
DOI: 10.1016/j.neubiorev.2021.02.032
Journal or Publication Title: Neurosci. Biobehav. Rev.
Volume: 125
Page Range: S. 478 - 493
Date: 2021
Publisher: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Place of Publication: OXFORD
ISSN: 1873-7528
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
ULTRA-HIGH-RISK; INDIVIDUALS; ADOLESCENTS; CALCULATOR; CONVERSION; PRODROME; CHECKING; OUTCOMES; ADULTS; YOUTHMultiple languages
Behavioral Sciences; NeurosciencesMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/60511

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