Universität zu Köln

Chakraborty, Saurav ORCID: 0000-0002-3317-0677, Dadashpoor, Hashem, Novotny, Josef ORCID: 0000-0001-9556-7162, Maity, Indranil, Follmann, Alexander, Patel, Priyank Pravin, Roy, Utpal and Pramanik, Suvamoy (2022). In pursuit of sustainability - Spatio-temporal pathways of urban growth patterns in the world's largest megacities. Cities, 131. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1873-6084

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Abstract

Governing the future growth of the world's megacities towards higher land use efficiency is important for achieving global sustainability. We have computed statistics of the urban growth modes of 33 megacities (with ten-million-plus population) worldwide for two periods (1985-2000 and 2000-2015) and performed a hierar-chical cluster analysis to examine their urban growth patterns. Results reveal that urban growth has mostly occurred through edge expansion but also that its relative dominance has decreased due to the rising shares of the infilling and outlying growth modes. Based on the co-occurrence and changing dominance of these three urban growth modes over time, four pathways of urban growth patterns are identified- oscillating/ping pong, transition-to-densification, transition-to-sprawl, and extensive sprawl. The majority of megacities followed the oscillating/ping pong pathway, which is dominated by edge expansion and altered phases of infilling and outlying growth. However, by indicating a clear shift from edge expansion towards infilling as the dominant pathway of urban growth, the transition-to-densification pathway appears to be the most sustainable in terms of land-use efficiency, with ten megacities following this pathway. Overall, our results highlight the diverse mega -urban growth pathways across the world, particularly for megacities in the Global South which generally have higher growth rates.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Chakraborty, Saurav UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-3317-0677 UNSPECIFIED Dadashpoor, Hashem UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Novotny, Josef UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-9556-7162 UNSPECIFIED Maity, Indranil UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Follmann, Alexander UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Patel, Priyank Pravin UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Roy, Utpal UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pramanik, Suvamoy UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-685496
DOI:	10.1016/j.cities.2022.103919
Journal or Publication Title:	Cities
Volume:	131
Date:	2022
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1873-6084
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language LAND-USE CHANGE; METROPOLITAN REGION; LANDSCAPE PATTERN; CHINESE CITIES; EXPANSION; URBANIZATION; DYNAMICS; SPRAWL; CITY; COALESCENCE Multiple languages Urban Studies Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/68549