Universität zu Köln

Silva, Paul (2025). Legal Standards of Proof: When and Why Merely Statistical Evidence Can Satisfy Them. Erkenntnis. An International Journal of Scientific Philosophy. pp. 1-23. Springer Nature. ISSN 0165-0106

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Abstract

The relation of normic support offers a novel solution to the proof paradox: a paradox in evidence law arising from legal cases involving merely statistical evidence (Smith in Mind 127: 1193–1218, 2018). Central to the normic support solution has been the thesis that merely statistical evidence cannot confer normic support. However, it has been observed that there are exceptions to this: there exist cases where merely statistical evidence can give rise to normic support (Blome-Tillmann in Mind 129: 563–578, 2020). If correct, this fact seems to undermine the normic support solution to the proof paradox. This paper explores a resolution: normic support can resolve the proof paradox even though merely statistical evidence sometimes gives rise to normic support. The key to understanding this resolution lies with a source of evidential support that arises out of bodies of evidence that involve character evidence (cf. Colyvan, et al. in JPP 9(2): 168–181 2001). It turns out that character evidence can provide normic support when it is grounded in our knowledge of a certain kind of disposition individuals can have: goal-directed dispositions. The upshot is the recovery of the normic support solution to the puzzle of whether statistical evidence can meet legal standards of proof.

Item Type:	Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Silva, Paul UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-794666
Identification Number:	10.1007/s10670-024-00900-w
Journal or Publication Title:	Erkenntnis. An International Journal of Scientific Philosophy
Page Range:	pp. 1-23
Date:	19 January 2025
Publisher:	Springer Nature
ISSN:	0165-0106
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Arts and Humanities
Divisions:	Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Fächergruppe 8: Philosophie > Philosophisches Seminar
Subjects:	Philosophy
['eprint_fieldname_oa_funders' not defined]:	Publikationsfonds UzK
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/79466