Universität zu Köln

Moritz, Michael ORCID: 0000-0003-0274-6714, Czock, Berit Hanna ORCID: 0009-0007-3685-5691 and Ruhnau, Oliver ORCID: 0000-0002-9772-4616 (2025). A heated debate—The future cost efficiency of climate-neutral heating options under consideration of heterogeneity and uncertainty. Energy Policy, 206. pp. 1-22. Elsevier. ISSN 03014215

PDF 1-s2.0-S0301421525002976-main.pdf Bereitstellung unter der CC-Lizenz: Creative Commons Attribution. Download (10MB)

Abstract

[Artikel-Nr.: 114790] To tackle climate change, residential heating must become climate-neutral. Which technology cost-efficiently achieves this goal is a complex question, given the heterogeneity of buildings and existing infrastructure, as well as the uncertainty regarding future energy prices and infrastructure costs. The present article aims to disentangle this complexity by comparing the future costs of various decentralized and centralized climate-neutral heating options. Using Germany as a case study, we calculate the future levelized cost of ten heating technologies for different building and settlement types and a wide range of assumptions for uncertain parameters, including energy prices and grid fees. We find that electric heat pumps are most often the economical choice within the considered range of inputs. Decentralized heat pumps appear to be preferable in rural areas, while heating grids with central heat pumps seem equally attractive in more urban areas. Hydrogen boilers would be cost-efficient only in scenarios with low hydrogen prices and, even then, often limited to rural settlements. Heating with synthetic natural gas seems unlikely to be economical across a broad range of plausible assumptions. Our results allow us to draw conclusions for policymakers in the German context and offer insights for similar policy debates in other countries.

Item Type:	Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Moritz, Michael UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0274-6714 UNSPECIFIED Czock, Berit Hanna UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3685-5691 UNSPECIFIED Ruhnau, Oliver UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9772-4616 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-806453
Identification Number:	10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114790
Journal or Publication Title:	Energy Policy
Volume:	206
Page Range:	pp. 1-22
Number of Pages:	22
Date:	November 2025
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	03014215
Language:	English
Faculty:	External institution
Divisions:	Externe Einrichtungen > An-Institute > Associated Institutes of the Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Institute for Energy Economics
Subjects:	Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Infrastructure costs ; Energy prices ; Heat pumps ; Hydrogen ; Decarbonization ; Techno-economic analysis ; Levelized costs of heating ; Residential heating ; Building energy English
['eprint_fieldname_oa_funders' not defined]:	Publikationsfonds UzK
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/80645