Universität zu Köln

Reiners, Robin ORCID: 0009-0008-8873-9403, Haubitz, Christiane B ORCID: 0000-0002-7126-0606 and Thonemann, Ulrich W ORCID: 0000-0002-3507-9498 (2025). Lead Time Prediction for Inventory Optimization With Machine Learning. Production and Operations Management, 34 (10). pp. 3010-3025. Sage. ISSN 1059-1478

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Abstract

Modern decision-support applications build on planning parameters such as lead time, price, yield, etc., which are maintained as master data. The accuracy of master data significantly influences the viability of such applications. However, the maintenance of master data is considered a tedious and error-prone task. In this study, we explore the effectiveness of machine learning techniques to improve the accuracy of plan lead times. We apply both unsupervised and supervised learning methods for creating lead time prediction models. We test our approach using historical data of a global equipment manufacturer. In a numerical analysis the calculated plan lead times are over 30% more accurate than current plan lead times in terms of mean-squared-error (MSE). This increased accuracy of plan lead times reduces inventory investment by approximately 7%.

Item Type:	Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Reiners, Robin UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8873-9403 UNSPECIFIED Haubitz, Christiane B UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7126-0606 UNSPECIFIED Thonemann, Ulrich W UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3507-9498 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-811716
Identification Number:	10.1177/10591478251328630
Journal or Publication Title:	Production and Operations Management
Volume:	34
Number:	10
Page Range:	pp. 3010-3025
Number of Pages:	16
Date:	13 October 2025
Publisher:	Sage
ISSN:	1059-1478
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Center of Excellence C-SEB Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Business Administration > Supply Chain Management > Professorship 1 for Supply Chain Managment
Subjects:	Economics Management and auxiliary services
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Lead Times ; Inventory ; Machine Learning ; Master Data ; Decision Support English
['eprint_fieldname_oa_funders' not defined]:	Publikationsfonds UzK
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/81171