Universität zu Köln

Keutz, Julian ORCID: 0009-0006-2478-7145 (2026). Essays on Uncertainty and Risk in the Energy Transition. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

PDF Dissertation_JulianKeutz.pdf - Accepted Version Bereitstellung unter der CC-Lizenz: Creative Commons Attribution. Download (3MB)

Abstract

The transition to a climate-neutral energy system increases the exposure of energy supply to uncertainty and risk, driven by weather-dependent renewable generation and the anticipated scale-up of hydrogen. This dissertation studies how uncertainty and risk shape economic outcomes along two dimensions: long-term system design in integrated European electricity and hydrogen systems, and short-term market behavior in sequential electricity markets. The first part applies numerical optimization models of the coupled European power and hydrogen system in 2050. Chapter 2 incorporates take-or-pay rates of long-term hydrogen import contracts and shows that reduced import flexibility is mainly balanced by additional hydrogen storage, while systems planned under rigid contracts are less reliable across weather years. Chapter 3 adds a stochastic representation of weather in Europe and in exporting regions. Accounting for weather risk lowers expected system costs relative to deterministic planning, but cost-minimal import strategies concentrate supply on few exporters. Diversification and reduced import dependency raise system costs moderately and can be justified under sufficiently high disruption risk. The second part develops analytical models of day-ahead and intraday bidding by renewable producers. Chapter 4 shows that forward premia arise from risk-averse bidding under imperfect competition and are amplified when conventional supply is inflexible. Risk-averse bidding amplifies the welfare loss caused by inflexible conventional supply. Chapter 5 offers a micro-founded explanation of the observed diurnal pattern of German day-ahead price premia, based on convex supply curves and heterogeneous bidding rules of wind and solar producers. Parameterized with market data, the model replicates the observed price pattern.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Keutz, Julian julian.keutz@web.de https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2478-7145 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-813846
Date:	2026
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Externe Einrichtungen > An-Institute > Associated Institutes of the Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences > Institute for Energy Economics
Subjects:	Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language energy transition; uncertainty; risk; risk aversion; hydrogen imports; long-term contracts; take-or-pay; security of supply; diversification; stochastic optimization; energy system modeling; electricity markets; day-ahead market; intraday market; forward premia; price premia renewable energy; market power; bidding behavior English
Date of oral exam:	23 September 2026
Referee:	Name Academic Title Bettzüge, Marc Oliver Prof. Dr. Ruhnau, Oliver Jun.-Prof. Dr.
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/81384