Universität zu Köln

Tobler, Lina ORCID: 0000-0002-0492-9728 (2026). Labour Market Policies and their Effect on the School-to-Work Transition. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

This dissertation analyses two policy incentives introduced by the German government to incentivise and stabilise training activity. Both policies were analysed by means of a difference-in-differences design, using firm-level panel data combined with register data and external information on regional or industry-specific indicators. First, a minimum wage for apprentices was introduced in 2020 to make apprenticeship training more attractive. While this can lead to supply increases, it also implies increased costs for firms, which might reduce their training offers. Whether a minimum apprenticeship wage actually leads to more entrants into the training system is an open empirical question which is answered in study 1. The results show that the minimum wage for apprentices did not lead to new entrants into the training system, as models indicate negative effects for both offered and filled training places. Study 2 builds on this by taking a longer-term perspective, asking about apprenticeship completions at the end of the training period, arguing that effects at the start of the apprenticeship do not necessarily translate into long-term effects on completions. The results indicate no negative effect on completions. As a second policy, an apprenticeship subsidy was introduced to incentivise firms to uphold their training activity during the COVID-19 crisis. Study 3 analyses the empirical effect of the subsidy asking whether a policy such as this could serve as an efficient tool to stabilise training activity during times of economic downturn. The results show that while subsidy eligibility did not significantly affect the number of new apprentices, eligible firms had a higher probability to maintain their past training levels. While this may seem counterintuitive at first, it is argued that especially firms at the margin of maintaining their training levels – irrespective of the subsidy – were incentivised to do so. This implies that the policy design was not optimal in terms of targeting firms that were severely affected by the crisis. The dissertation informs about the effect of financial incentives on supply of and demand for apprentices as well as on the effect of the incentive on potential labour supply for the general labour market. Moreover, it emphasises the importance of a policy’s design, which shapes incentive structures.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Tobler, Lina UNSPECIFIED https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0492-9728 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-815909
Date:	13 October 2026
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Management, Economy and Social Sciences
Divisions:	Weitere Institute, Arbeits- und Forschungsgruppen > Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology (ISS)
Subjects:	Social sciences Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language public policy UNSPECIFIED evaluation UNSPECIFIED education UNSPECIFIED apprenticeship UNSPECIFIED wages UNSPECIFIED training subsidy UNSPECIFIED labour markets UNSPECIFIED difference-in-differences UNSPECIFIED
Date of oral exam:	2026
Referee:	Name Academic Title Jacob, Marita Prof. Dr. Hank, Karsten Prof. Dr.
Funders:	Hans-Böckler-Stiftung (2023-22-5)
Projects:	Politische Reformen zur Förderung betrieblicher Ausbildung
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/81590