Hammitt, James K., Morfeld, Peter, Tuomisto, Jouni T. and Erren, Thomas C. (2020). Premature Deaths, Statistical Lives, and Years of Life Lost: Identification, Quantification, and Valuation of Mortality Risks. Risk Anal., 40 (4). S. 674 - 696. HOBOKEN: WILEY. ISSN 1539-6924

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Abstract

Mortality effects of exposure to air pollution and other environmental hazards are often described by the estimated number of premature or attributable deaths and the economic value of a reduction in exposure as the product of an estimate of statistical lives saved and a value per statistical life. These terms can be misleading because the number of deaths advanced by exposure cannot be determined from mortality data alone, whether from epidemiology or randomized trials (it is not statistically identified). The fraction of deaths attributed to exposure is conventionally derived as the hazard fraction (R - 1)/R, where R is the relative risk of mortality between high and low exposure levels. The fraction of deaths advanced by exposure (the etiologic fraction) can be substantially larger or smaller: it can be as large as one and as small as 1/e (approximate to 0.37) times the hazard fraction (if the association is causal and zero otherwise). Recent literature reveals misunderstanding about these concepts. Total life years lost in a population due to exposure can be estimated but cannot be disaggregated by age or cause of death. Economic valuation of a change in exposure-related mortality risk to a population is not affected by inability to know the fraction of deaths that are etiologic. When individuals facing larger or smaller changes in mortality risk cannot be identified, the mean change in population hazard is sufficient for valuation; otherwise, the economic value can depend on the distribution of risk reductions.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Hammitt, James K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Morfeld, PeterUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tuomisto, Jouni T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Erren, Thomas C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-124646
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13427
Journal or Publication Title: Risk Anal.
Volume: 40
Number: 4
Page Range: S. 674 - 696
Date: 2020
Publisher: WILEY
Place of Publication: HOBOKEN
ISSN: 1539-6924
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
AMBIENT AIR-POLLUTANTS; STATED-PREFERENCE; ATTRIBUTABLE FRACTIONS; INCOME ELASTICITY; GLOBAL VALUES; POLLUTION; PROBABILITY; CAUSATION; DISEASE; BURDENMultiple languages
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical MethodsMultiple languages
Refereed: Yes
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/12464

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