Universität zu Köln

Agranov, Marina, Goeree, Jacob K., Romero, Julian and Yariv, Leeat (2018). WHAT MAKES VOTERS TURN OUT: THE EFFECTS OF POLLS AND BELIEFS. J. Eur. Econ. Assoc., 16 (3). S. 825 - 857. OXFORD: OXFORD UNIV PRESS. ISSN 1542-4774

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Abstract

We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm-that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Agranov, Marina UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Goeree, Jacob K. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Romero, Julian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Yariv, Leeat UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-183558
DOI:	10.1093/jeea/jvx023
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Eur. Econ. Assoc.
Volume:	16
Number:	3
Page Range:	S. 825 - 857
Date:	2018
Publisher:	OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1542-4774
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language UNANIMOUS JURY VERDICTS; INFORMATION AGGREGATION; ELECTIONS; WELFARE; BANDWAGON; PARADOX; RULE; BIAS Multiple languages Economics Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/18355