Morris, Dylan H., Gostic, Katelyn M., Pompei, Simone, Bedford, Trevor, Luksza, Marta, Neher, Richard A., Grenfell, Bryan T., Laessig, Michael and McCauley, John W. (2018). Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology. Trends Microbiol., 26 (2). S. 102 - 119. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1878-4380

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Abstract

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Developed through data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Morris, Dylan H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gostic, Katelyn M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Pompei, SimoneUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bedford, TrevorUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Luksza, MartaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Neher, Richard A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Grenfell, Bryan T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Laessig, MichaelUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
McCauley, John W.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-197817
DOI: 10.1016/j.tim.2017.09.004
Journal or Publication Title: Trends Microbiol.
Volume: 26
Number: 2
Page Range: S. 102 - 119
Date: 2018
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication: OXFORD
ISSN: 1878-4380
Language: English
Faculty: Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Physics > Institut für Biologische Physik
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
SEASONAL INFLUENZA; HEMAGGLUTINATION-INHIBITION; A VIRUS; GENETIC-CHARACTERISTICS; VACCINE EPIDEMIOLOGY; CLONAL EVOLUTION; IMMUNE HISTORY; DYNAMICS; A(H3N2); SURVEILLANCEMultiple languages
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; MicrobiologyMultiple languages
Refereed: Yes
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/19781

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