Universität zu Köln

Becker, M., Karpytchev, M., Marcos, M., Jevrejeva, S. and Lennartz-Sassinek, S. (2016). Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? Geophys. Res. Lett., 43 (10). S. 5176 - 5185. WASHINGTON: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. ISSN 1944-8007

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Abstract

The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long-term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Becker, M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Karpytchev, M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Marcos, M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Jevrejeva, S. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lennartz-Sassinek, S. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-275161
DOI:	10.1002/2016GL068971
Journal or Publication Title:	Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume:	43
Number:	10
Page Range:	S. 5176 - 5185
Date:	2016
Publisher:	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Place of Publication:	WASHINGTON
ISSN:	1944-8007
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language LONG-RANGE CORRELATIONS; TERM PERSISTENCE; TRENDS; CMIP5; VARIABILITY; SIMULATIONS; RECORDS; PROJECTIONS; IMPACT; MEMORY Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/27516