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Manner, Hans (2016). Modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games. J. Quant. Anal. Sports, 12 (1). S. 31 - 42. BERLIN: WALTER DE GRUYTER GMBH. ISSN 1559-0410

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Abstract

This paper treats the problem of modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games. First, it is shown how the benchmark model in the literature can be extended to allow for heteroscedasticity and estimation and testing in this framework is treated. Second, time-variation is introduced into the model by introducing a dynamic state space model for team strengths. The in-sample results based on eight seasons of NBA data provide weak evidence for heteroscedasticity, which can lead to notable differences in estimated win probabilities. However, persistent time variation is only found when combining the data of several seasons, but not when looking at individual seasons. The models are used for forecasting a large number of regular season and playoff games and the common finding in the literature that it is difficult to outperform the betting market is confirmed. Nevertheless, a forecast combination of model based forecasts with betting odds can lead to some slight improvements.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Manner, Hans UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-283894
DOI:	10.1515/jqas-2015-0088
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Quant. Anal. Sports
Volume:	12
Number:	1
Page Range:	S. 31 - 42
Date:	2016
Publisher:	WALTER DE GRUYTER GMBH
Place of Publication:	BERLIN
ISSN:	1559-0410
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language MARKET BELIEVE; HOME ADVANTAGE; FOOTBALL; TEAM; SELECTION; MATCH Multiple languages Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/28389