Universität zu Köln

Asare, Ernest O., Tompkins, Adrian M., Amekudzi, Leonard K., Ermert, Volker and Redl, Robert ORCID: 0000-0003-3055-7603 (2016). Mosquito breeding site water temperature observations and simulations towards improved vector-borne disease models for Africa. Geospatial Health, 11. S. 67 - 78. NAPLES: UNIV NAPLES FEDERICO II. ISSN 1970-7096

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Abstract

An energy budget model is developed to predict the water temperature of typical mosquito larval developmental habitats. It assumes a homogeneous mixed water column driven by empirically derived fluxes. The model shows good agreement at both hourly and daily time scales with 10-min temporal resolution observed water temperatures, monitored between June and November 2013 within a peri-urban area of Kumasi, Ghana. There was a close match between larvae development times calculated using either the model-derived or observed water temperatures. The water temperature scheme represents a significant improvement over assuming the water temperature to be equal to air temperature. The energy budget model requires observed minimum and maximum temperatures, information that is generally available from weather stations. Our results show that hourly variations in water temperature are important for the simulation of aquatic-stage development times. By contrast, we found that larval development is insensitive to sub-hourly variations. Modelling suggests that in addition to water temperature, an accurate estimation of degree-day development time is very important to correctly predict the larvae development times. The results highlight the potential of the model to predict water temperature of temporary bodies of surface water. Our study represents an important contribution towards the improvement of weather-driven dynamical disease models, including those designed for malaria early forecasting systems.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Asare, Ernest O. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Tompkins, Adrian M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Amekudzi, Leonard K. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ermert, Volker UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Redl, Robert UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-3055-7603 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-290066
DOI:	10.4081/gh.2016.391
Journal or Publication Title:	Geospatial Health
Volume:	11
Page Range:	S. 67 - 78
Date:	2016
Publisher:	UNIV NAPLES FEDERICO II
Place of Publication:	NAPLES
ISSN:	1970-7096
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language ANOPHELES-GAMBIAE DIPTERA; MALARIA TRANSMISSION; AQUATIC STAGES; SENSIBLE HEAT; DYNAMICS; CLIMATE; ARABIENSIS; CULICIDAE; DENSITY; PARAMETERIZATION Multiple languages Health Care Sciences & Services; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/29006