Ruggeri, Kai ORCID: 0000-0002-8470-101X, Ali, Sonia ORCID: 0000-0001-5767-1540, Berge, Mari Louise, Bertoldo, Giulia ORCID: 0000-0002-6960-3980, Bjorndal, Ludvig D., Cortijos-Bernabeu, Anna ORCID: 0000-0002-9828-8174, Davison, Clair, Demic, Emir, Esteban-Serna, Celia, Friedemann, Maja, Gibson, Shannon P., Jarke, Hannes ORCID: 0000-0002-6022-6381, Karakasheva, Ralitsa, Khorrami, Peggah R., Kveder, Jakob, Andersen, Thomas Lind, Lofthus, Ingvild S., McGill, Lucy ORCID: 0000-0002-0702-2806, Nieto, Ana E., Perez, Jacobo, Quail, Sahana K., Rutherford, Charlotte, Tavera, Felice L., Tomat, Nastja, Van Reyn, Chiara ORCID: 0000-0002-1100-2525, Veckalov, Bojana ORCID: 0000-0002-8477-1261, Wang, Keying, Yosifova, Aleksandra, Papa, Francesca, Rubaltelli, Enrico, van der Linden, Sander ORCID: 0000-0002-0269-1744 and Folke, Tomas (2020). Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk. Nat. Hum. Behav., 4 (6). S. 622 - 635. NEW YORK: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. ISSN 2397-3374

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Abstract

Prospect theory is among the most influential frameworks in behavioural science, specifically in research on decision-making under risk. Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 study tested financial choices under risk, concluding that such judgements deviate significantly from the assumptions of expected utility theory, which had remarkable impacts on science, policy and industry. Though substantial evidence supports prospect theory, many presumed canonical theories have drawn scrutiny for recent replication failures. In response, we directly test the original methods in a multinational study (n = 4,098 participants, 19 countries, 13 languages), adjusting only for current and local currencies while requiring all participants to respond to all items. The results replicated for 94% of items, with some attenuation. Twelve of 13 theoretical contrasts replicated, with 100% replication in some countries. Heterogeneity between countries and intra-individual variation highlight meaningful avenues for future theorizing and applications. We conclude that the empirical foundations for prospect theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds. In a sample of over 4,000 participants from 19 countries, the core patterns from a highly influential study on behaviour and decision-making broadly replicate, with only minor exceptions and somewhat smaller effect sizes.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Ruggeri, KaiUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-8470-101XUNSPECIFIED
Ali, SoniaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0001-5767-1540UNSPECIFIED
Berge, Mari LouiseUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bertoldo, GiuliaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-6960-3980UNSPECIFIED
Bjorndal, Ludvig D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cortijos-Bernabeu, AnnaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-9828-8174UNSPECIFIED
Davison, ClairUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Demic, EmirUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Esteban-Serna, CeliaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Friedemann, MajaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gibson, Shannon P.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jarke, HannesUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-6022-6381UNSPECIFIED
Karakasheva, RalitsaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Khorrami, Peggah R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kveder, JakobUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Andersen, Thomas LindUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lofthus, Ingvild S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
McGill, LucyUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-0702-2806UNSPECIFIED
Nieto, Ana E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Perez, JacoboUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Quail, Sahana K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rutherford, CharlotteUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tavera, Felice L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tomat, NastjaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Van Reyn, ChiaraUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-1100-2525UNSPECIFIED
Veckalov, BojanaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-8477-1261UNSPECIFIED
Wang, KeyingUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Yosifova, AleksandraUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Papa, FrancescaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rubaltelli, EnricoUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
van der Linden, SanderUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-0269-1744UNSPECIFIED
Folke, TomasUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-333542
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0886-x
Journal or Publication Title: Nat. Hum. Behav.
Volume: 4
Number: 6
Page Range: S. 622 - 635
Date: 2020
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Place of Publication: NEW YORK
ISSN: 2397-3374
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
LOSS AVERSION; REPLICABILITY; PSYCHOLOGY; BEHAVIOR; SCIENCEMultiple languages
Psychology, Biological; Multidisciplinary Sciences; Neurosciences; Psychology, ExperimentalMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/33354

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