Universität zu Köln

Steinheuer, Julian and Friederichs, Petra ORCID: 0000-0003-4566-572X (2020). Vertical profiles of wind gust statistics from a regional reanalysis using multivariate extreme value theory. Nonlinear Process Geophys., 27 (2). S. 239 - 253. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 1607-7946

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Abstract

Many applications require wind gust estimates at very different atmospheric height levels. For example, the renewable energy sector is interested in wind and gust predictions at the hub height of a wind power plant. However, numerical weather prediction models typically only derive estimates for wind gusts at the standard measurement height of 10 m above the land surface. Here, we present a statistical post-processing method to derive a conditional distribution for hourly peak wind speed as a function of height. The conditioning variables are taken from the COSMO-REA6 regional reanalysis. The post-processing method was trained using peak wind speed observations at five vertical levels between 10 and 250 m from the Hamburg Weather Mast. The statistical post-processing method is based on a censored generalized extreme value (cGEV) distribution with nonhomogeneous parameters. We use a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select the most informative variables. Vertical variations of the cGEV parameters are approximated using Legendre polynomials, such that predictions may be derived at any desired vertical height. Further, the Pickands dependence function is used to assess dependencies between gusts at different heights. The most important predictors are the 10 m gust diagnostic, the barotropic and the baroclinic mode of absolute horizontal wind speed, the mean absolute horizontal wind at 700 hPa, the surface pressure tendency, and the lifted index. Proper scores show improvements of up to 60 % with respect to climatology, especially at higher vertical levels. The post-processing model with a Legendre approximation is able to provide reliable predictions of gusts' statistics at non-observed intermediate levels. The strength of dependency between gusts at different levels is non-homogeneous and strongly modulated by the vertical stability of the atmosphere.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Steinheuer, Julian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Friederichs, Petra UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-4566-572X UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-336596
DOI:	10.5194/npg-27-239-2020
Journal or Publication Title:	Nonlinear Process Geophys.
Volume:	27
Number:	2
Page Range:	S. 239 - 253
Date:	2020
Publisher:	COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication:	GOTTINGEN
ISSN:	1607-7946
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; MODEL; DECOMPOSITION Multiple languages Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Physics, Fluids & Plasmas Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/33659