Predictability of Power Grid Frequency - Kölner UniversitätsPublikationsServer

Kruse, Johannes ORCID: 0000-0002-3478-3379, Schafer, Benjamin ORCID: 0000-0003-1607-9748 and Witthaut, Dirk (2020). Predictability of Power Grid Frequency. IEEE Access, 8. S. 149435 - 149447. PISCATAWAY: IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC. ISSN 2169-3536

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DOI:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3016477

Abstract

The power grid frequency is the central observable in power system control, as it measures the balance of electrical supply and demand. A reliable frequency forecast can facilitate rapid control actions and may thus greatly improve power system stability. Here, we develop a weighted-nearest-neighbour (WNN) predictor to investigate how predictable the frequency trajectories are. Our forecasts for up to one hour are more precise than averaged daily profiles and could increase the efficiency of frequency control actions. Furthermore, we gain an increased understanding of the specific properties of different synchronous areas by interpreting the optimal prediction parameters (number of nearest neighbours, the prediction horizon, etc.) in terms of the physical system. Finally, prediction errors indicate the occurrence of exceptional external perturbations. Overall, we provide a diagnostics tool and an accurate predictor of the power grid frequency time series, allowing better understanding of the underlying dynamics.

Item Type:

Journal Article

Creators:

Creators	Email	ORCID	ORCID Put Code
Kruse, Johannes	UNSPECIFIED	orcid.org/0000-0002-3478-3379	UNSPECIFIED
Schafer, Benjamin	UNSPECIFIED	orcid.org/0000-0003-1607-9748	UNSPECIFIED
Witthaut, Dirk	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED	UNSPECIFIED