Universität zu Köln

Haas, Rabea, Pinto, Joaquim G. and Born, Kai (2014). Can dynamically downscaled windstormfootprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach? J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119 (2). S. 713 - 726. WASHINGTON: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. ISSN 2169-8996

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Abstract

Windstorms are a main feature of the European climate and exert strong socioeconomic impacts. Large effort has been made in developing and enhancing models to simulate the intensification of windstorms, resulting footprints, and associated impacts. Simulated wind or gust speeds usually differ from observations, as regional climate models have biases and cannot capture all local effects. An approach to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of wind and wind gust toward observations is introduced. For this purpose, 100 windstorms are selected and observations of 173 (111) test sites of the German Weather Service are considered for wind (gust) speed. Theoretical Weibull distributions are fitted to observed and simulated wind and gust speeds, and the distribution parameters of the observations are interpolated onto the RCM computational grid. A probability mapping approach is applied to relate the distributions and to correct the modeled footprints. The results are not only achieved for single test sites but for an area-wide regular grid. The approach is validated using root-mean-square errors on event and site basis, documenting that the method is generally able to adjust the RCM output toward observations. For gust speeds, an improvement on 88 of 100 events and at about 64% of the test sites is reached. For wind, 99 of 100 improved events and similar to 84% improved sites can be obtained. This gives confidence on the potential of the introduced approach for many applications, in particular those considering wind data. Key Points <list list-type=bulleted id=jgrd51110-list-0001> <list-item id=jgrd51110-li-0001>We introduced an approach to adjust RCM windstorm footprints to observations <list-item id=jgrd51110-li-0002>The method is generally able to enhance the results of dynamical downscaling <list-item id=jgrd51110-li-0003>The application of the approach produces better results for wind than for gusts

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Haas, Rabea UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Pinto, Joaquim G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Born, Kai UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-448229
DOI:	10.1002/2013JD020882
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.
Volume:	119
Number:	2
Page Range:	S. 713 - 726
Date:	2014
Publisher:	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Place of Publication:	WASHINGTON
ISSN:	2169-8996
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL; CIRCULATION WEATHER TYPES; WIND; OUTPUT; STORM Multiple languages Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/44822