Universität zu Köln

Wergen, G. and Krug, J. (2010). Record-breaking temperatures reveal a warming climate. EPL, 92 (3). BRISTOL: IOP PUBLISHING LTD. ISSN 1286-4854

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Abstract

We present a mathematical analysis of records drawn from independent random variables with a drifting mean. To leading order the change in the record rate is proportional to the ratio of the drift velocity to the standard deviation of the underlying distribution. We apply the theory to time series of daily temperatures for given calendar days, obtained from historical climate recordings of European and American weather stations as well as re-analysis data. We conclude that the change in the mean temperature has increased the rate of record-breaking events in a moderate but significant way: for the European station data covering the time period 1976-2005, we find that about 5 of the 17 high temperature records observed on average in 2005 can be attributed to the warming climate. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2010

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Wergen, G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Krug, J. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-493217
DOI:	10.1209/0295-5075/92/30008
Journal or Publication Title:	EPL
Volume:	92
Number:	3
Date:	2010
Publisher:	IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Place of Publication:	BRISTOL
ISSN:	1286-4854
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language EXTREME; VARIABILITY Multiple languages Physics, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/49321