Universität zu Köln

Bordalo, Pedro, Coffman, Katherine, Gennaioli, Nicola, Schwerter, Frederik and Shleifer, Andrei (2021). Memory and Representativeness. Psychol. Rev., 128 (1). S. 71 - 86. WASHINGTON: AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC. ISSN 1939-1471

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Abstract

We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of memory. In our model, the probability of a hypothesis conditional on data increases in the ease with which instances of that hypothesis are retrieved when cued with the data. Retrieval is driven by a measure of similarity which exhibits contextual interference: a data/cue is less likely to retrieve instances of a hypothesis that occurs frequently in other data. As a result, probability assessments are context dependent. In a new laboratory experiment, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors and other features. In line with the model's predictions, we find that (a) decreasing the frequency of a given color in one group significantly increases the recalled frequency of that color in the other group; and (b) cueing different features for the same set of images entails different probabilistic assessments, even if the features are normatively irrelevant. A calibration of the model yields a good quantitative fit with the data, highlighting the central role of contextual interference.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Bordalo, Pedro UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Coffman, Katherine UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Gennaioli, Nicola UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Schwerter, Frederik UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Shleifer, Andrei UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-588167
DOI:	10.1037/rev0000251
Journal or Publication Title:	Psychol. Rev.
Volume:	128
Number:	1
Page Range:	S. 71 - 86
Date:	2021
Publisher:	AMER PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOC
Place of Publication:	WASHINGTON
ISSN:	1939-1471
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CONJUNCTION FALLACY; PROBABILITY; JUDGMENT; MODEL; MECHANISMS; RETRIEVAL; DYNAMICS; COLOR Multiple languages Psychology; Psychology, Multidisciplinary Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/58816