Universität zu Köln

Eingrueber, Nils and Korres, Wolfgang (2022). Climate change simulation and trend analysis of extreme precipitation and floods in the mesoscale Rur catchment in western Germany until 2099 using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model). Sci. Total Environ., 838. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER. ISSN 1879-1026

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Abstract

Due to climate change and global warming, speed and intensity of the hydrological cycle will accelerate. In order to carry out regional risk assessment, integrated water resources management and flood protection, far reaching predictions and future scenarios of climate change effects on extreme precipitation and flooding are of particular relevance. In this study, trends in frequencies of extreme precipitation and floods until 2099 are analysed for the German Rur catchment, which is half located in highlands and half in lowlands and therefore has a high topographical and climatological contrast. To predict future trends, coupled modeling is performed based on NCEP reanalysis data and a General Circulation Model (GCM). Assuming HadCM3 future emission scenarios A2a and B2a, an empirical Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is developed and daily precipitation amounts are projected until 2099 by a stochastic weather generator. The generated precipitation data are used as an input for the ecohydrological Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) to simulate daily water discharge until 2099. Statistical trend analyses are implemented based on three annual extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and the magnitudes of ten flood return periods derived with GEV and Gumbel extreme value distributions for 109 30-year moving periods using regression analyses and Mann-Kendall tendency tests to check for significant trends in the frequencies until 2099. As a result, it could be demonstrated for all EPIs that the frequency of extreme precipitation in the upper Rur catchment will significantly increase by +33% to +51% until 2099 compared to the base period 1961-1990, whereas mostly non-significant negative trends of extreme precipitation can be projected in the lowlands. For runoff, it was found that the magnitudes of the ten flood return periods will significantly increase by +31% for B2a to +36% for A2a until 2099 compared to the base period.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Eingrueber, Nils UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Korres, Wolfgang UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-663430
DOI:	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155775
Journal or Publication Title:	Sci. Total Environ.
Volume:	838
Date:	2022
Publisher:	ELSEVIER
Place of Publication:	AMSTERDAM
ISSN:	1879-1026
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language FUTURE CLIMATE; CHANGE IMPACTS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; CHANGE PROJECTIONS; RIVER-BASIN; LARS-WG; TEMPERATURE; INDEXES; EVENTS; CIRCULATION Multiple languages Environmental Sciences Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/66343