Universität zu Köln

Gredner, Thomas, Niedermaier, Tobias ORCID: 0000-0001-7990-3437, Steindorf, Karen ORCID: 0000-0001-5215-5651, Brenner, Hermann ORCID: 0000-0002-6129-1572 and Mons, Ute ORCID: 0000-0003-1764-6783 (2022). Original Research Impact of reducing excess body weight and physical inactivity on cancer incidence in Germany from 2020 to 2050da simulation model. Eur. J. Cancer, 160. S. 215 - 227. OXFORD: ELSEVIER SCI LTD. ISSN 1879-0852

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Abstract

Background: Excess body weight and physical inactivity are key cancer risk factors contributing substantially to the cancer burden in Germany. We aimed to estimate the numbers and proportions of future cancer cases prevented under different scenarios of reducing the prevalence of excess body weight and physical inactivity in Germany.Methods: Based on a macro-simulation approach calculating age-, sex-, and cancer-site spe-cific potential impact fractions, we estimated for a 30-year study period (2020e2050) numbers and proportions of cancer cases prevented under different scenarios of reducing excess body weight (overweight and obesity) and increasing levels of physical activity in the German pop-ulation.Results: Estimates of the prevented cancer burden varied in the different scenarios. In the guideline exposure scenarios, in which the prevalence of excess body weight and insufficient levels of physical activity would be eliminated, 8.7% (men: 10.1%; women: 7.8%) of overweight/obesity-related cancer cases and 2.4% (men: 2.3%; women: 2.4%) of cancer cases related to physical inactivity were estimated to be prevented over a 30-year period. This translates to approximately 662,000 (men: 304,000; women: 358,000) and 129,000 (men: 42,000; women: 87,000) prevented cancer cases, respectively.Conclusion: Our results illustrate that a substantial number of future cancer cases could be prevented in the German population by reducing excess body weight and physical inactivity. 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Gredner, Thomas UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Niedermaier, Tobias UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-7990-3437 UNSPECIFIED Steindorf, Karen UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-5215-5651 UNSPECIFIED Brenner, Hermann UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-6129-1572 UNSPECIFIED Mons, Ute UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-1764-6783 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-679296
DOI:	10.1016/j.ejca.2021.10.026
Journal or Publication Title:	Eur. J. Cancer
Volume:	160
Page Range:	S. 215 - 227
Date:	2022
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Place of Publication:	OXFORD
ISSN:	1879-0852
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language NORDIC COUNTRIES; POTENTIAL IMPACT; RISK; ASSOCIATION; FATNESS; OBESITY; BREAST Multiple languages Oncology Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/67929