Universität zu Köln

Agostinetto, Elisa ORCID: 0000-0003-0295-7511, Ameye, Lieveke, Martel, Samuel, Aftimos, Philippe, Ponde, Noam, Maurer, Christian ORCID: 0000-0003-4388-5163, El-Abed, Sarra, Wang, Yingbo, Vicente, Malou, Chumsri, Saranya, Bliss, Judith ORCID: 0000-0001-7957-7424, Kroep, Judith, Colleoni, Marco, Petrelli, Fausto, Del Mastro, Lucia, Moreno-Aspitia, Alvaro, Piccart, Martine, Paesmans, Marianne, de Azambuja, Evandro and Lambertini, Matteo ORCID: 0000-0003-1797-5296 (2022). PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer. npj Breast Cancer, 8 (1). BERLIN: NATURE PORTFOLIO. ISSN 2374-4677

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Abstract

The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib +/- trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti HER2-therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor negative-disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size (13.0%, 15.8%, and 15.3%, respectively). AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95% CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analyzed subgroups. In conclusion, our analysis showed that PREDICT highly underestimated OS in HER2-positive EBC. Hence, it should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation to HER2-positive EBC patients treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Agostinetto, Elisa UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-0295-7511 UNSPECIFIED Ameye, Lieveke UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Martel, Samuel UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Aftimos, Philippe UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Ponde, Noam UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Maurer, Christian UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-4388-5163 UNSPECIFIED El-Abed, Sarra UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Wang, Yingbo UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Vicente, Malou UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Chumsri, Saranya UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Bliss, Judith UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0001-7957-7424 UNSPECIFIED Kroep, Judith UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Colleoni, Marco UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Petrelli, Fausto UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Del Mastro, Lucia UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Moreno-Aspitia, Alvaro UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Piccart, Martine UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Paesmans, Marianne UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED de Azambuja, Evandro UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lambertini, Matteo UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-1797-5296 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-695334
DOI:	10.1038/s41523-022-00452-8
Journal or Publication Title:	npj Breast Cancer
Volume:	8
Number:	1
Date:	2022
Publisher:	NATURE PORTFOLIO
Place of Publication:	BERLIN
ISSN:	2374-4677
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIALS; PLUS ADJUVANT CHEMOTHERAPY; 70-GENE SIGNATURE; PROGNOSTIC MODEL; FOLLOW-UP; TRASTUZUMAB; VALIDATION; LAPATINIB Multiple languages Oncology Multiple languages
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/69533