Wortel, Meike T., Agashe, Deepa ORCID: 0000-0002-0374-8159, Bailey, Susan F., Bank, Claudia ORCID: 0000-0003-4730-758X, Bisschop, Karen ORCID: 0000-0001-7083-2636, Blankers, Thomas ORCID: 0000-0002-1893-8537, Cairns, Johannes ORCID: 0000-0003-1329-2025, Colizzi, Enrico Sandro ORCID: 0000-0003-1709-4499, Cusseddu, Davide ORCID: 0000-0002-6882-9486, Desai, Michael M., van Dijk, Bram, Egas, Martijn ORCID: 0000-0001-8078-1609, Ellers, Jacintha, Groot, Astrid T., Heckel, David G., Johnson, Marcelle L., Kraaijeveld, Ken, Krug, Joachim, Laan, Liedewij, Laessig, Michael, Lind, Peter A., Meijer, Jeroen, Noble, Luke M., Okasha, Samir, Rainey, Paul B., Rozen, Daniel E., Shitut, Shraddha, Tans, Sander J., Tenaillon, Olivier, Teotonio, Henrique, de Visser, J. Arjan G. M., Visser, Marcel E., Vroomans, Renske M. A., Werner, Gijsbert D. A., Wertheim, Bregje and Pennings, Pleuni S. (2023). Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges. Evol. Appl., 16 (1). S. 3 - 22. HOBOKEN: WILEY. ISSN 1752-4571

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Abstract

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Wortel, Meike T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Agashe, DeepaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-0374-8159UNSPECIFIED
Bailey, Susan F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bank, ClaudiaUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-4730-758XUNSPECIFIED
Bisschop, KarenUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0001-7083-2636UNSPECIFIED
Blankers, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-1893-8537UNSPECIFIED
Cairns, JohannesUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-1329-2025UNSPECIFIED
Colizzi, Enrico SandroUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0003-1709-4499UNSPECIFIED
Cusseddu, DavideUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0002-6882-9486UNSPECIFIED
Desai, Michael M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
van Dijk, BramUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Egas, MartijnUNSPECIFIEDorcid.org/0000-0001-8078-1609UNSPECIFIED
Ellers, JacinthaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Groot, Astrid T.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Heckel, David G.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Johnson, Marcelle L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kraaijeveld, KenUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Krug, JoachimUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Laan, LiedewijUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Laessig, MichaelUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lind, Peter A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Meijer, JeroenUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Noble, Luke M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Okasha, SamirUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rainey, Paul B.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rozen, Daniel E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Shitut, ShraddhaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tans, Sander J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Tenaillon, OlivierUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Teotonio, HenriqueUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
de Visser, J. Arjan G. M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Visser, Marcel E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Vroomans, Renske M. A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Werner, Gijsbert D. A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wertheim, BregjeUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Pennings, Pleuni S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-698295
DOI: 10.1111/eva.13513
Journal or Publication Title: Evol. Appl.
Volume: 16
Number: 1
Page Range: S. 3 - 22
Date: 2023
Publisher: WILEY
Place of Publication: HOBOKEN
ISSN: 1752-4571
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
ADAPTIVE EVOLUTION; GENETIC-VARIATION; ANTIBIOTIC-RESISTANCE; DRUG-RESISTANCE; SIGN EPISTASIS; ADAPTATION; SELECTION; MODEL; PREDICTABILITY; DIVERSITYMultiple languages
Evolutionary BiologyMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/69829

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