Universität zu Köln

Ho, Linh Tran Thuy ORCID: 0000-0001-9952-7133 (2024). Extremes in wind and photovoltaic power production in Europe analysed using synoptic weather patterns. PhD thesis, Universität zu Köln.

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Abstract

As Europe increases its share of photovoltaic (PV) and wind power to achieve the climate-neutral targets by 2050, its electricity system also increasingly depends on weather conditions. Extreme events in PV and wind power production can undermine the electricity system’s stability when their total production deviates signifiantly from the anticipated values. Identifying what weather conditions are associated with extremes in PV and wind power production across Europe, and how they might change in the future compared to the presentday installation, would provide valuable insights for the energy sector. This thesis addresses these issues through comprehensive analyses of PV plus wind power production variability in Europe using synoptic weather patterns. To that end, the Renewable Energy Model (REM) was developed to simulate PV and wind power production with high-resolution reanalysis data from COSMO-REA6 for the period 1995—2017. The installed capacity data were derived from the CLIMIX dataset projected for 2050 and scaled for 2019 to compare changes in weather dependency between present-day and future installations. The anomalies in PV and wind power production from REM were analysed using a synoptic weather pattern classifiation of 29 patterns with the advantage of capturing day-to-day and regional variability in meteorological conditions across Europe. This thesis explores the topic in two studies. The fist study examines the climatological variations in the total production of PV plus wind power across Europe associated with 29 weather patterns over the period 1995–2017. The study also assesses the sensitivity of these associations with different event durations, regions, and installations. The results show that the inflence of wind power variability is pronounced in the present-day installation, while the future installation exhibits increased inflence from PV power variability. Dark doldrum weather patterns become more problematic, with reduced production in both PV and wind power, particularly in the pattern South-Shifted Westerly (Ws) with a reduction of −12.1% in the total production compared to the climatological mean. Associations of weather patterns with low total production strongly depend on the event duration and installed capacity. In contrast, high total production correlates with dominant westerly wind patterns, irrespective of the event duration or installation. Associations of weather patterns vary more signifiantly in southern European regions, attributed to a higher proportion of PV power installations. This study also compiles a catalogue of climatological anomalies in PV and wind power production associated with each weather pattern, showing how these anomalies are distributed spatially across Europe. This could aid the energy sector with a quick estimation of renewable power production anomalies during a given meteorological condition without an extensive energy model. The second study investigates extreme events in total production in Germany, with a focus on the seasonal differences in their meteorological conditions. The results show that the future installation forsees an increased frequency of extremely low production events in the summer half of the year, notably in May. Stationary weather patterns that last over fie days play an important role in 14-day low production events, with distinct characteristics between summer and winter events. Winter events, occurring from October to March, relate to atmospheric blockings (stationary anticyclonic patterns), which are characterised by a very low wind power production and a slightly low PV power production compared to the climatological means, up to −37% and −9%, respectively. In contrast, summer events, occurring from April to September, are associated with stationary cyclonic patterns and characterised by moderately low production in both PV and wind power of up to −19% compared to the climatological means. The direction of the pressure system movement to Germany inflences the effectiveness of cross-border transmission lines in the North–South or West–East direction. The study raises concerns regarding prolonged low production events in summer in the future installation, which could pose a combined threat to the electricity system as the demand for cooling increases due to more frequent heatwaves.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD thesis)
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Ho, Linh Tran Thuy linh.hotranthuy@gmail.com orcid.org/0000-0001-9952-7133 UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-742826
Date:	10 November 2024
Place of Publication:	Cologne
Language:	English
Faculty:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences > Department of Geosciences > Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology
Subjects:	Natural sciences and mathematics Earth sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language Renewable energy English Synoptic weather patterns English Extreme English
Date of oral exam:	30 October 2023
Referee:	Name Academic Title Fiedler, Stephanie Prof Neggers, Roel Prof
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/74282